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Abstract We report a new population of outer belt electron acceleration events ranging from hundreds of keV to ∼1.5 MeV that occurred inside the plasmasphere, which we named “Inside Events” (IEs). Based on 6 year observations from Van Allen Probes, we compare the statistical distributions of IEs with electron acceleration events outside the plasmasphere (OEs). We find that most IEs were observed atL < 4.0 at energies below ∼1.5 MeV, with weaker acceleration ratio (<10) and larger event numbers (peaking value reaching >200), compared to stronger but less frequently occurred (peaking event numbers only reaching ∼80) OEs that were mostly observed atL > 4.0. The evolution of electron phase space density of a typical IE shows signature of inward radial diffusion or transport. Our study provides a feasible mechanism for IE, which is the results of the inward radial transport of the electron acceleration in the outer region of outer belt. 

Abstract We investigate the response of outer radiation belt electron fluxes to different solar wind and geomagnetic indices using an interpretable machine learning method. We reconstruct the electron flux variation during 19 enhancement and 7 depletion events and demonstrate the feature attribution analysis called SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) on the superposed epoch results for the first time. We find that the intensity and duration of the substorm sequence following an initial dropout determine the overall enhancement or depletion of electron fluxes, while the solar wind pressure drives the initial dropout in both types of events. Further statistical results from a data set with 71 events confirm this and show a significant correlation between the resulting flux levels and the average AL index, indicating that the observed “depletion” event can be more accurately described as a “non‐enhancement” event. Our novel SHAP‐Enhanced Superposed Epoch Analysis (SHESEA) method can offer insight in various physical systems. 

Abstract We perform a comprehensive investigation of the statistical distribution of outer belt electron acceleration events over energies from 300 keV to ∼10 MeV regardless of storm activity using 6‐years of observations from Van Allen Probes. We find that the statistical properties of acceleration events are consistent with the characteristic energies of combined local acceleration by chorus waves and inward radial diffusion. While electron acceleration events frequently occur both at <2 MeV atL < 4.0 and at multi‐MeV atL > 4.5, significant acceleration events are confined toL > ∼4.0. By performing superposed epoch analysis of acceleration events during storm and non/weak storm events and comparing their geomagnetic conditions, we reveal the strong correlation (>0.8) between accumulated impacts of substorms as measured by time‐integrated AL (Int(AL)) and the upper flux limit of electron acceleration. While intense storms can provide favorable conditions for efficient acceleration, they are not necessarily required to produce large maximum fluxes. 

Abstract Understanding and forecasting outer radiation belt electron flux dropouts is one of the top concerns in space physics. By constructing Support Vector Machine (SVM) models to predict storm‐time dropouts for both relativistic and ultra‐relativistic electrons overL = 4.0–6.0, we investigate the nonlinear correlations between various driving factors (model inputs) and dropouts (model output) and rank their relative importance. Only time series of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters are adopted as model inputs. A comparison of the performance of the SVM models that uses only one driving factor at a time enables us to identify the most informative parameter and its optimal length of time history. Its accuracy and the ability to correctly predict dropouts identifies the SYM‐H index as the governing factor atL = 4.0–4.5, while solar wind parameters dominate the dropouts at higher L‐shells (L = 6.0). Our SVM model also gives good prediction of dropouts during completely out‐of‐sample storms. 

Abstract Using 5‐year of measurements from Van Allen Probes, we present a survey of the statistical dependence of the Earth's outer radiation belt electron flux dropouts during geomagnetic storms on electron energy and various driving parameters including interplanetary magnetic field B_z, P_SW, SYM‐H, and AE. By systematically investigating the dropouts over energies of 1 keV–10 MeV at L‐shells spanning 4.0–6.5, we find that the dropouts are naturally divided into three regions. The dropouts show much higher occurrence rates at energies below ∼100 keV and above ∼1 MeV compared to much smaller occurrence rate at intermediate energies around hundreds of keV. The flux decays more dramatically at energies above ∼1 MeV compared to the energies below ∼100 keV. The flux dropouts of electrons below ∼100 keV strongly depend on magnetic local time (MLT), which demonstrate high occurrence rates on the nightside (18–06 MLT), with the highest occurrence rate associated with northward B_z, strong P_SWand SYM‐H, and weak AE conditions. The strongest flux decay of these dropouts is found on the nightside, which strongly depends on P_SWand SYM‐H. However, there is no clear MLT dependence of the occurrence rate of relativistic electron flux dropouts above ∼1 MeV, but the flux decay of these dropouts is more significant on the dayside, with stronger decay associated with southward IMF B_z, strong P_SW, SYM‐H, and AE conditions. Our statistical results are crucial for understanding of the fundamental physical mechanisms that control the outer belt electron dynamics and developing future potential radiation belt forecasting capability. 

Abstract Using particle and wave measurements from the Van Allen Probes, a 2‐D Fokker‐Planck simulation model driven by the time‐integrated auroral index (AL) value is developed. Simulations for a large sample of 186 storm‐time events are conducted, demonstrating that the AL‐driven model can reproduce flux enhancement of the MeV electrons. More importantly, the relativistic electron flux enhancement is determined by the sustained strong substorm activity. Enhanced substorm activity results in increased chorus wave intensity and reduced background electron density, which creates the required condition for local electron acceleration by chorus waves to MeV energies. The appearance of higher energy electrons in radiation belts requires a higher level of cumulative AL activity after the storm commencement, which acts as a type of switch, turning on progressively higher energies for longer and more intense substorms, at critical thresholds. 

Abstract Energetic electron precipitation (EEP) associated with pulsating aurora can transfer greater than 30 keV electrons from the outer radiation belt region into the upper atmosphere and can deplete atmospheric ozone via collisions that produce NOx and HOx molecules. Our knowledge of exactly how EEP occurs is incomplete. Previous studies have shown that pitch angle scattering between electrons and lower‐band chorus waves can cause pulsating aurora associated with EEP and that substorms play an important role. In this work, we quantify the timescale of chorus wave decay following substorms and compare that to previously determined timescales. We find that the chorus decay e‐folding time varies based on magnetic local time (MLT), magnetic latitude, and wave frequency. The shortest timescales occur for lower‐band chorus in the 21 to 9 MLT region and compares, within uncertainty, to the energetic pulsating aurora timescale of Troyer et al. (2022,https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2022.1032552) for energetic pulsating aurora. We are able to further support this connection by modeling our findings in a quasi‐linear diffusion simulation. These results provide observations of how chorus waves behave after substorms and add additional statistical evidence linking energetic pulsating aurora to substorm driven lower‐band chorus waves. 

Abstract We perform ensemble simulations of radiation belt electron acceleration using the quasi‐linear approach during the storm on 9 October 2012, where chorus waves dominated electron acceleration atL = 5.2. Based on a superposed epoch analysis of 11 similar storms when both multi‐MeV electron flux enhancements and chorus wave activities were observed by Van Allen Probes, we use percentiles to sample the normalized input distributions for the four key inputs to estimate their relative perturbations. Using 11 points in each input parameter including chorus wave amplitudeB_w, chorus wave peak frequencyf_m, background magnetic fieldB₀, and electron densityN_e, we ran 11⁴simulations to quantify the impact of uncertainties in the input parameters on the resulting simulated electron acceleration by chorus. By comparing the simulations to observations, our ensemble simulations reveal that inaccuracies in all four input parameters significantly affect the simulated electron acceleration, with the largest simulation errors attributed to the uncertainties inB_w,N_e, andf_m. The simulation can deviate from the observations by four orders of magnitude, while members with largest probability density (smallest perturbations in the input) provide reasonable estimations of output fluxes with log accuracy errors concentrated between ∼−2.0 and 0.5. Quantifying the uncertainties in our study is a prerequisite for the validation of our radiation belt electron model and improvements of accurate electron flux predictions. 

Abstract Very-Low-Frequency (VLF) transmitters operate worldwide mostly at frequencies of 10–30 kilohertz for submarine communications. While it has been of intense scientific interest and practical importance to understand whether VLF transmitters can affect the natural environment of charged energetic particles, for decades there remained little direct observational evidence that revealed the effects of these VLF transmitters in geospace. Here we report a radially bifurcated electron belt formation at energies of tens of kiloelectron volts (keV) at altitudes of ~0.8–1.5 Earth radii on timescales over 10 days. Using Fokker-Planck diffusion simulations, we provide quantitative evidence that VLF transmitter emissions that leak from the Earth-ionosphere waveguide are primarily responsible for bifurcating the energetic electron belt, which typically exhibits a single-peak radial structure in near-Earth space. Since energetic electrons pose a potential danger to satellite operations, our findings demonstrate the feasibility of mitigation of natural particle radiation environment.